Beyond $1 trillion: Takeaways from SEMICON West 2026

Rational exuberance was the theme of the week at SEMICON West this year. Where 2025’s edition was dedicated to the delirious climb toward the $1 trillion revenue milestone, this year’s was a celebratory look back - and a hopeful look forward to an uncertain future. Industry experts were right to believe that $1 trillion would be achieved far before 2030. But it is difficult to predict if the headwinds buffeting artificial intelligence as a viable, profitable end-user product will materially dampen semiconductor prospects. Are we near the top of the supercycle, or will the industry soar on toward $2 trillion and beyond by decade’s end?

The semiconductor boom is a pricing boom. Promised capacity ramps are still quarters, if not years, off. Highly-touted domestic U.S. capacity, such as Micron’s new Idaho fabs, will not see high-volume…