Managing uncertainty in retail and business banking: It is time to prepare, not predict

Geopolitical volatility has already sparked tangible consequences as the global economy faces great uncertainty. Most recently, the US introduced one of the most dramatic trade tariffs in history, representing the largest overnight price shifts the global economy has ever seen, only to pause them a few days later. These sudden shifts have become a sign of the times, where uncertainty is now the new normal.

Where there was once optimism, sentiment has now waned. Recession fears are mounting, particularly in the world’s biggest economy. The implications are far-reaching. Supply chains are being re-evaluated, inflationary pressures are intensifying, and cross-border capital flows are becoming more cautious. Across industries, businesses are waking up to a reality defined by unprecedented uncertainty.

In this context, financial institutions are under real pressure. Their main sources of income from both lending, assets under management, and deposits, are all affected by…